How many points Derby County will need to survive if they win, lose, or draw vs Luton Town
Luton Town and Derby County face off this Friday in a huge Easter Weekend clash at the bottom of the Championship table.
Luton lost 1-0 at home to an out of form Blackburn Rovers side at Kenilworth Road on Saturday, while Derby took a step closer to safety with a 2-2 draw away to Portsmouth. It was another huge weekend in the Championship, but there are bound to be more twists and turns to come.
Derby were 2-1 up at Fratton Park until the 91st minute, but the draw still leaves them well-placed after a huge improvement in recent weeks under John Eustace. The Rams have four wins and two draws in their last seven outings and have escaped the relegation zone for now amid ‘insane statistics’ being set.
They cannot afford a defeat to Luton in the early kick-off in front of the Sky Sports cameras this Friday, though. Derby can place themselves close to safety with a win at Pride Park, while also almost totally knocking Luton out of contention to catch them in the process.
Derby County and Luton Town know how important Friday is to survival
Several sides, in theory, still remain at risk of suffering relegation to League One, with the likes of Preston North End and Oxford United, in 16th and 17th position respectively, not completely out of the woods just yet with four games to go.
Stoke City, Portsmouth, and Hull City are just above the Rams, while Luton will be hoping to pull them back in. Each team’s fate will take a turn for better or worse this week, irrespective of their own result, with results around them now dictating the picture at the bottom.
Of course, multiple sides will be delighted to see two of the teams fighting to survive facing off. A draw would suit the majority of teams above both Luton and Derby but may not be very helpful for either team involved.
It means that relegation is almost certain to go right down to the wire, and with an eventful weekend of action imposing much change and drama down at the bottom of the table at this late stage of the season. We’ve taken a closer look at Friday’s game, here.
What if Derby County win against Luton Town?
The Rams would move on to 46 points with victory, which would make it extremely difficult to be caught by both Plymouth Argyle and Luton. Should Cardiff City lose to Sheffield United, it would place safety in their sights.
The current PPG of Cardiff suggests that 46 will be enough with strong goal difference — something Derby certainly have. But we suspect that a few extra points may be needed, having had a stab at predicting the points total needed for survival recently. The maximum the Rams can reach with victory would be 55 if they get maximum in each of the three other remaining fixtures.
With games against West Bromwich Albion, Hull City, and Stoke City to come, it would have them well-placed for survival in their first season back at Championship level since 2022. You imagine that they would find the last point or two needed to ensure survival, should other results also go their way.
What if Derby County draw with Luton Town?
A draw would not be ideal for either side at such a crucial point in the season, leaving the door open for sides above both to climb away and for Cardiff to overtake Derby if they beat the Blades.
However, it would be a better point for Derby than Luton. The Hatters would not claw back any ground on their hosts and Derby’s run-in remains far more favourable despite the ‘six-pointers’ they would have to navigate.
Should Cardiff lose, it takes Derby another step closer to safety and away from the Bluebirds. It would make 46/47 points look almost certain to be enough to be a part of the 2025/26 Championship line-up.
However, a Cardiff win would mean 54 points is the maximum they can achieve, with Derby only able to get to 53 with wins in every other game.
What if Derby County lose to Luton Town?
It goes without saying that a defeat would be incredibly damaging at this stage of the campaign. In many ways this is both a must-win and a must-not-lose for each team. Derby could be reeled back in by the visitors and relegation fears would heighten.
They would still have the games to rectify the problem and would stay above Luton on goal difference. But it is still a disastrous outcome, especially as Luton’s form has been good of late — outside of losing to Blackburn.
Matt Bloomfield has picked up three wins and three draws in the last eight games. They were in excellent form prior to Saturday, having only lost to Burnley in that timeframe. The maximum points they can achieve with a win is 52, though, the same as Derby.
Both sides are operating at more of a mid-table level of late, which should make it a cracker for the neutral. However, it will be a damaging day for at least one or both of the sides involved. Derby will hope that that isn’t them, with a defeat or draw applying further pressure to the final three league games.
Who do Opta think is likeliest to be relegated?
Of the bottom four sides, it’s Eustace’s outfit who have the most favourable run-in and also sit outside of the bottom three. That combination of factors points towards safety being far more likely for Derby than their competitors.
They have hit strong form at the right time, and will fancy their chances back at Pride Park on Good Friday before an Easter Monday trip across the Midlands to West Brom — which could be their most difficult remaining game.
With three of Derby’s four remaining opponents still in relatively close proximity, amid a recent run of strong form, the Rams look well-placed to retain their second tier status. That is why Opta suggests as much.
The Opta supercomputer believes Plymouth and Luton are as good as done with 94.6% and 89.28% chances of relegation respectively. Cardiff are also more likely to be relegated than not from here, with a 69.08% chance, while Derby’s 29.82% chance could shift one way or another massively this weekend.
The maximum they can achieve may be 55, but 47 or 48 points will put Derby very close to safety, given their goal difference is worth an extra point over the other teams involved at the bottom.
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