How many points Derby County need to stay in Championship amid Cardiff, Hull and Stoke battle
The feelgood factor is back at Derby County after a run of three consecutive wins and with new boss John Eustace at the helm there is a real belief the club can avoid relegation to League One.
After a trio of defeats to begin his time at the Rams after a surprise switch from Blackburn Rovers following Paul Warne’s sacking last month, Eustace’s new team have turned a corner and are now only one point outside the relegation zone with a vastly superior goal difference to Cardiff City in a place above them.
The Rams have had unbeaten spells this season but they have not had winning runs, sequences of games which in the Championship can drastically alter the complexion of a season in a week.
That is exactly what happened when Derby beat Blackburn, Coventry City and Plymouth Argyle a week or so ago to leave themselves in 22nd place ahead of the final international break of the season.
They are three points clear of Luton Town a place below them and five better off than Plymouth at the foot of the Championship.
Derby went from having 29 points and being four points adrift at the bottom of the table to roaring back into the relegation battle with three statement victories over play-off contenders and fellow relegation battlers.
So, what next for the Rams? It’s a visit of Preston North End on April 2 before a trip to Swansea City the following Saturday and then a clash with Burnley on April 8 in what could be another pivotal three-game week.
The season then comes to a quick-fire finish on May 3 with games against Portsmouth, Luton Town, West Bromwich Albion, Hull City and Stoke City to come.
Only two of those teams are in the top half of the table, and three of them are 19th or below.
It’s hard to imagine that there is a little over a month of the season to go and still 24 points to play for in the battle to avoid the drop.
Statisticians Opta reckon that the Rams will finish on 47 points (rounded down from 47.37 by their maths) and in 22nd place, with Cardiff surviving relegation by the skin of their teeth with 48.13 points rounded down to 48.
Having crunched the numbers from the last five campaigns, it appears that 45 points is the magic number to survive relegation with teams aiming for 50 in the Championship to give themselves a solid chance of staying up.
That number is slightly skewed by points deductions, most notably to the Rams in the 2021/22 campaign, and it’s a warning that Birmingham City got relegated last year despite managing 50 points.
There is also the Peterborough anomaly too, when they got relegated in 2012/13 with a whopping 54 points.
After injuries to key players and the sale of Eiran Cashin to Brighton & Hove Albion in January, the Rams looked like they were heading for the third tier again.
However, Eustace has lit the spark in the team and the fans and now they dare to dream.
Why can’t Derby go and beat a Preston team with only one win in their last six League games and who have lost three of their past five away games?
Swansea have lost their last two games head to table-toppers Leeds United before welcoming the Rams on April 5 in a game that could see them draw level on points.
Wins in both of those games would put Derby on 44 points and they would be the form team in the Championship.
It’s all about late runs in this division, which Derby fans know too well, and their side is hitting form at just the right time having dispatched of some high-flying teams, too.
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