Opta’s supercomputer has released its latest predictions for which teams are most likely to win the Premier League this session.

We tasked the AI-powered Opta supercomputer with simulating the

2024-25 Premier League season 10,000 times to see how it believed the campaign may pan out.

Across those results, eight different teams won the Premier League title at

least once, and it won’t surprise anyone to hear that Manchester City won

it more often than rivals Manchester United did. Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool

were the only teams to avoid relegation in every one of the 10,000 simulations,

while at least one of Tottenham, Man Utd or Chelsea were relegated to the Championship across 73 of them.

 

An essential thing to understand is that these projections are based on what

the Opta supercomputer knows today. Essentially, if all 380 games in the

Premier League were to be played now, this is how the model sees the league finishing.

Of course, these projections will change throughout the season,

thousands of times, based on real-life data powering the seasonal simulations.

It doesn’t factor in potential points deductions, a long-term injury

to a star striker and it certainly doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict managerial changes.

 

Nevertheless, these pre-season projections provide an early look at what

certain teams might be realistically aiming to achieve in 2024-25.

You’ll have seen various 1-20 predictions by publications this summer

and you’ve probably made your own, too; see this as a more unique

projection without opinion and instead powered by data.

 

 

Who Will Win the Premier League in 2024-25?

Across our 10,000 season simulations, no side finished as

Premier League champions in 2024-25 as often as Manchester City (82.2%).

This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to most football fans.

After all, Pep Guardiola’s side have won the Premier League title

in each of the last four seasons – a run of success that no

English top-flight team have ever managed before now.

This is lower than their projected Premier League title chances at the start of 2023-24, however. Back then it was at 90.2%, a projection that proved to be correct come the end of May. In fact, the Opta supercomputer predicted the correct top three in the Premier League last season, getting the exact league position for seven teams correct overall.

 

Now, Arsenal fans will probably be incensed that the Opta supercomputer is backing Man City so heavily – we know this because we heard you all last season – but the bigger picture is that Arsenal have gone from a 4.1% projected chance of winning the Premier League title last season before a ball was kicked, to a 12.2% chance ahead of 2024-25. The impressive job Mikel Arteta has done at the Emirates Stadium is further emphasised when knowing Arsenal’s title chances at the start of 2022-23 were just 0.13% with the Opta supercomputer.

 

The current projections are saying this Arsenal side finish inside the top two 61% of the time, while they end in the top four and qualify for the UEFA Champions League in 95.7% of pre-season simulations. That projection to finish in the top four is slightly lower than Man City’s 99.9% chance, but higher than Liverpool’s 88.8% probability.

 

Liverpool begin a new era under Dutch manager Arne Slot following Jürgen Klopp’s departure, with the Opta supercomputer making them third favourites for the Premier League title at 5.1% – higher than at this time last season (3.5%). The Reds actually spent more days top of the Premier League table than any other side in 2023-24 (87) – nine more than eventual champions Man City (78) and 11 more than Arsenal (76), but sitting top at the end of the final day is all that matters. Slot arrives at Anfield from Dutch club Feyenoord, where he lost out in a title battle with an exceptional PSV side in the Eredivisie last season.

 

Across the Opta supercomputer’s 2024-25 Premier League projections, only five other clubs won the title and that happened just 48 times between Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa. Is a shock title win possible? Yes. Is it likely? Not at all.

 Who Will Win Finish in the Premier League Top Four?

As we’ve already mentioned, Man City and Arsenal are a shoo-in for top-four finishes in the Premier League this season, while Liverpool look likely to join them.

The battle to seal the final league position to qualify for the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League looks set to be between four clubs, with another 11 sides making it into the top four at least once in the pre-season simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

 

 

Chelsea have a new manager in Enzo Maresca, who won the Championship with Leicester City last season. The Blues had a mixed campaign last term under Mauricio Pochettino but ended in sixth, and arguably have the players to achieve higher. They have finished outside the top four in the Premier League in successive seasons, but the Opta supercomputer projects a 31.6% chance of finishing in the UCL qualification spots as things stand. Much of that, though, will depend on how quickly Maresca can relay his ideology to an overspilling Chelsea squad.

 

Newcastle finished fourth in 2022-23, but last season saw them struggle to juggle Champions League football with their busy domestic schedule. Arguably the worst injury crisis of all Premier League clubs last season didn’t help Eddie Howe, but they still managed to finish seventh in the table. The supercomputer is backing them to finish inside the top four 26.6% of the time this season.

 

Both Tottenham and Manchester United are considered to be among the Premier League’s ‘big six’ but fell outside the top four last season. Spurs, in their first season under Ange Postecoglou, ended fifth despite dropping only four points in their opening 10 games of the season. Then, the dramatic game at home to Chelsea occurred on 6 November, when they lost 4-1, suffered numerous injuries to important players and had another two sent off. From that point on, they won 40 points in 28 games – the joint-eighth best in the Premier League – after coming into the game with Chelsea just a point off league leaders Man City.

 

Spurs are projected to finish inside the top four 17.5% of the time, which is just below Manchester United’s 18.9% probability. United struggled in their second season under Erik ten Hag, but they did win the 2024 FA Cup final against rivals Man City, showing that they can beat the best on their day. The problem for United last season was consistency, both in terms of lineup and results. They also let teams shoot too often, with only Sheffield United (678) allowing opponents more shots than United (667), while their expected goals against total of 70.1 was more than Arsenal and Man City combined (64.3).

 

The addition of Champions League football to Aston Villa’s schedule could prove problematic for Unai Emery’s squad, and the Opta supercomputer isn’t positive about their chances of back-to-back top-four finishes in the Premier League. They are projected to clinch another top-four spot in only 7.3% of simulations, just ahead of Crystal Palace (5.4%) – who greatly improved once Oliver Glasner was appointed as head coach last season – and West Ham (2.2%). The latter will hope the appointment of Julen Lopetegui as manager and some good business in the transfer market will reinvigorate them.

 

There’s also good news for Southampton fans: the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations saw Saints finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League on two occasions. Now, we’ve just revealed that because we’re about to give you some bad news…

Get More Related News at:sportviewers.com