LATEST UPDATES: Bills vs. Ravens, Week 4: Analysis of strengths and weaknesses

We examine what the projected metrics regarding the Bills-Ravens matchup

Tell us using a ton of data and a few GIFs.

 

The Baltimore Ravens, who have a startling 1-2 record through the first three weeks

of the season, will host the Buffalo Bills on the road. It’s not shocking that they lost

to the Kansas City Chiefs considering how well they played against every opponent.

A slightly more unexpected outcome would be a loss to the likewise-1-2 Las Vegas Raiders

and a close call with the Dallas Cowboys following a terrible fourth quarter.

 

To anyone paying attention, it’s too early to write off the Ravens.

Baltimore has consistently been among the AFC’s top-tier clubs in recent years.

Still, their record is noteworthy. Let’s take a look at who and what they’ve been so far this season.

 

Ravens Offense vs. Bills Defense

League averages

 

Although I’ve used these charts previously, let me remind you that red on offensive

(Baltimore in this case) is not good. Buffalo’s defense benefits from it. Stated differently,

The offensive of the Ravens appears to be strong initially. The field goal %,

goal-to-go rate and kickoff return averages are the only areas with red markings.

Their field goal percentage is the only one of those three that is noticeably out of whack,

and it can certainly be detrimental to “winning.”

 

No one in the NFL has a higher yards-per-play overall. To break that data out,

Baltimore leads the league in rushing average and is eighth in passing yards per play.

The Ravens are moving the ball more easily than anyone so far this year.

That hasn’t always translated to points — with 2.22 points per drive,

the Ravens sit at 12th in the NFL. About 41% of their drives end in a score,

also good for 12th. With the sixth-best turnover rate,

 

They’re not missing out on points or drives as a result of that.

 

 

The Buffalo Bills defense appears to be vulnerable and will present a challenge to the Ravens.

When it comes to stopping the rushing game, Buffalo ranks 22nd in the league.

making their rushing yards per play their poorest defensive metric from this collection.

The Bills rank second in passing yards per play, so even though the Ravens

have a strong passing attack, they will be facing a top-tier pass defense.

 

Buffalo is giving up the fewest points per drive, the fewest scoring drives (less than 28%),

and the third-best number of turnovers (almost one-fifth of all drives).

 

The Stars

 

Lamar Jackson, the quarterback, is ranking 21st in the league with a completion

percentage of 65.6%. Jackson is tied for 16th place with a touchdown percentage

of 3.3%, sixth place with an interception rate of 1.1%, and seventh place with a yards per attempt

of 7.8, and second place with a sack rate of 3.23%. Jackson averages 2.91 seconds

to throw the ball, which is longer than most quarterbacks. With an absurd 7.3 yards

per carry, he has the second-highest yards per attempt rushing in the league.

It will be the highest rate in his career if it holds true or even comes close to it.

 

Speaking of rushing, the Ravens added running back Derrick Henry,

who’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Henry has four touchdowns,

which matches Jackson’s total this season (3 passing, 1 rushing).

Henry also adds 16 first downs to the mix.

 

Though Henry has already crossed the dreaded 30-year-old mark,

the Ravens have found some success already using him as a battering ram in short-yardage

situations like we see above. Further…

 

Henry is still able to move quickly and nimbly to get things done.

Henry found a lane and quickly avoided several defenders on this long touchdown.

Even when another player was practically hanging off his shoulder,

he ran through one and pushed through for the touchdown.

 

While none of the receiving threats have statistically distinguished themselves,

Keep an eye out for Rashod Bateman, who will be aiming to bring in deeper passes

for Baltimore with some strong RAC on big plays this season, on the boundary.

Zay Flowers’ 2023 average has started off a little bit faster than it did.

Flowers’ quick passes to the sidelines and his ability to cross the middle will test Buffalo’s defense.

 

If you’re reading Buffalo Rumblings,

I don’t think I need to spend nearly as much time discussing Buffalo’s defense.

This will put Buffalo’s island of misfit defenders to the test.

Buffalo can stay closer to their nickel foundation when nickel cornerback

Taron Johnson is there because of his powerful presence, despite his diminutive stature.

As a result, his injury may have a significant impact. Greg Rousseau,

a defensive end, has been disruptive in every game this season,

but given Henry’s added run threat, he could need to play more containment against Jackson.

This week’s challenge for the Bills defense ought to be considerably more difficult.

 

Ravens Defense vs. Bills Offense

League averages

 

The Ravens, who rank 23rd in the league, allow a whopping 0.41 yards per play

and 21 more yards per game than the league average. This is a really crazy team.

The strange thing about that rating is that nobody has been more successful

this year in stopping the run. Conversely, few teams perform worse when it comes

to stopping the pass. Nobody has given up more passing yards per contest.

yet the Ravens are still ranked 28th in terms of plays allowed.

 

But what matters most are points, and as you can see,

the Ravens are giving up 4.8 more per game than normal.

They allow the seventh-highest points per drive, which puts them in the “bad” category

according to my rule of four distribution. Additionally, 48.5% of their drives against

the Ravens result in points, ranking them as the seventh-most frequent opponents of touchdowns.

Their takeout rate ranks 20th, which is about average.

 

 

The Ravens might have a solid setup on paper to make Buffalo seem flat.

Buffalo ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt, which is their weakest category.

That is not good against the top rushing defense in the league.

Nevertheless, supporters of the Buffalo Bills may point out that two of the team’s games

This season were blowouts, with their offenses dominating major portions

of a couple of the second half in expected ways. Buffalo has the upper hand

in the passing game because of their second-highest rate of efficiency per play.

 

With an average of 3.53 points per drive, Buffalo currently leads the league.

You perceive that correctly. The Bills’ scoring output would be greatly reduced if opponents

simply sighted Buffalo a field goal on every drive instead of taking on their offense.

The only other teams above the field goal per drive mark are the Washington Commanders

(3.20) and New Orleans Saints (3.39). The Bills rank third in the league in turnover prevention.

yet their scoring rate is top-ranked on the same list (only in reverse order with Buffalo in third).

 

The Stars

 

It should come as no surprise to any of you, but Kyle Van Noy is the player

to watch for Baltimore thus far this season. Van Noy leads the club in 2024 in all three categories

sacks and tackles for a loss—and is among the top 10 or better in the league.

He also has six quarterback hits and five tackles for a loss.

 

Here, Kyle Van Noy uses cunning strategy to clear a path so he may break through

the middle of the line with ease. Van Noy can bend around the block and reach out to tackle

quarterback Dak Prescott because he is quick enough to make this work.

 

Running back James Cook has had a good season already with an AFC Offensive Player

of the Week award for his significant contributions in squishing the fish.

Cook has also contributed heavily in the passing game, where he’s behind only tight end

Dalton Kincaid and a star on the rise in wide receiver Khalil Shakir. If you hadn’t heard yet,

Shakir has caught 100% of his targets through three games. That’s 14 passes caught,

including two for touchdowns. Shakir’s habit of never saying die is beginning to turn heads.

 

Josh Allen is not so quietly off to an insane start. Allen is completing 75% of his passes

(2nd in league), throwing a touchdown 9.7% of the time (also 2nd),

and has yet to throw an interception. His 8.8 yards per attempt is third-best in the league.

Allen has thrown for seven touchdowns and picked up two more as a runner.

 

The Final Straw

 

Even with three games, there is still a significant chance that a few outliers

will significantly alter the results. Regression to the mean may start this Sunday for both teams.

so don’t expect some of the more bizarre figures mentioned above to stay true

for the entire season. The Bills and Ravens appear to have some significant advantages

for Buffalo on paper.

 

In recent years, head coach Sean McDermott and associates have devised brilliant strategies

to contain both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. In isolation.

I’m hoping the mastermind can figure out a way to prevent them from blowing up at the same time.

 

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