Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United ahead of Fulham match

The “Jones Knows” column on Sky Sports has provided some insightful analysis

and commentary on Newcastle United’s current situation.

The column discusses various topics and problems at teams in addition to making predictions

about what will happen during specific Premier League games.

However, this forecast incorporates proper analysis and insight, not only assumptions,

unlike the typical ex-pro predictions, which are usually based on how “big” a club is and whether

or not they won the previous game.

The “Jones Knows” column on Sky Sports analyzes the games from a betting standpoint

and has been focusing on this Newcastle United away at Fulham.

Lewis Jones has brought to light a few significant underlying issues that could or ought to have a significant impact on this Fulham vs. Newcastle game.

“Fulham’s record versus Newcastle is appalling;

they have lost the last six encounters and had a player sent off in three of the previous seven.

In those seven prior meetings, they have also only scored twice and blanked five times.

Given Newcastle’s defensive performance this season,

I would be shocked if they were unable to score once more.

“Yes, Eddie Howe’s men are unbeaten having taken 10 points from a possible 12,

but they’ve faced an average of 1.63 of expected goals against per 90 along with averaging 16.5

shots faced per 90. Only two teams have faced more shots – and the Toon have had a somewhat

kind opening set of fixtures.

“I wouldn’t expect some regression with their results too soon because winning matches

with comfortable margins isn’t a sustainable means to gain points.

“This is where it could happen, as Fulham is a very appealing 9/5 favorite to win with Sky Bet.”

It’s always intriguing to hear the Sky Sports analyst’s thoughts on Newcastle United games;

he usually has some insightful things to say.

Still, there are other statistics that he consistently chooses to ignore.

These are the predictions the man from Sky Sports made previously on Newcastle United in the Premier League this season:

Newcastle 3 Southampton 1

Bournemouth 1 Newcastle 0

Newcastle 1 Tottenham 3

Wolve 1 Newcastle 1

According to statistics, it indicates that this season,

the Sky Sports analyst’s success rate in predicting Newcastle results was only 25%. Furthermore,

his lone successful prediction was a Newcastle United triumph!

As supporters of Newcastle United, none of us are overly excited about a few wins

(including the cup victory at Forest). But I believe that the media’s and some NUFC fans

‘ initial responses to those results have been absurd.

The statistics demonstrate that Newcastle United has been competitive in every game,

as seen by the number of shots, shots on goal, possession, corners, and other metrics.

Spurs was the lone exception to that rule, even though United ultimately produced more high-caliber

opportunities in that game. Eddie Howe purposefully gave Spurs easy possession

in non-threatening areas last season; this season, Spurs have 66 percent of the possession at SJP,

down from 73 percent. Howe’s strategy in both games was to attack Tottenham’s extremely high

defensive line when regaining possession. This season, Newcastle overcame

Spurs 2-1 following a hard-fought 4-0 thrashing last season, as they often failed to manage the ball effectively enough.

Newcastle had to play 73 minutes with one man down after Schar was sent off during a goalless

match against Southampton, making their victory against them an incredible effort.

Getting the winner and keeping a spotless record was remarkable.

Similar patterns vs Bournemouth and Wolves. After losing control and being caught on break,

Newcastle totally dominated the opening twenty or so minutes,

failing to take advantage and then scoring a sucker punch goal each time.

But in these two away games, United’s substitutes helped them regain control from

the sixty to sixty-five minute mark, ultimately winning and drawing.

Ideally, Newcastle United can get off to a strong start against Fulham,

just as they have in their past away games. However, if/when they get ahead early and maintain

that lead throughout the middle of the game, they should be able to score first this time.

Both the statistics and the perceived threat to the United goal provided by the Sky Sports expert

are a touch deceiving when it comes to how many shots Newcastle has faced.

This season, the vast majority of shots have come from a distance and/or have been blocked

by consistently excellent defense. This season, Newcastle United has produced far more obvious,

high-quality chances than all other opposing clubs combined.

Newcastle United do have to start and play better across the whole 90 minutes if we are going to keep

up the regular supply of wins and points so far, if we do so today,

then I think United will make it six wins in a row in their last six visits to Craven Cottage.

Newcastle United upcoming match schedule, confirmed to end of November:

Saturday 21 September 2024 – Fulham v Newcastle (3pm)

Tuesday 24 September 2024 – AFC Wimbledon v Newcastle (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 28 September 2024 – Newcastle v Man City (12.30 pm) TNT Sports

Saturday 5 October – Everton v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports