JUST IN: What Leeds need to secure Championship promotion and title – Report
Leeds United have another crucial game coming up on Monday night away at Sheffield United,
looking to extend their unbeaten run and strengthen their position at the top.
Sunderland were Leeds’ most recent opponents and while the Black Cats posed
a threat in the first half, Leeds rallied after half time to fight back for a late 2-1 win.
It saw Leeds climb to top of the table and clear a gap behind them to third and fourth place,
now turning their focus to a trip to Bramall Lane against Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United.
As we look ahead to Monday’s vital top two meeting, we examine what
Leeds need to mathematically secure promotion and the league title…
What are Leeds currently on course for in the Championship?
As things stand, Leeds are on course to eclipse their tally of 90 points last season, all while scoring more and conceding fewer as well.
It’s a remarkable improvement from Daniel Farke’s side, considering the amount of sales the club were forced into in the summer months, recruiting well to balance out the side going both ways.
Their current rate of goals, goals against, and points accumulated makes for impressive reading:
| Stats | Figure | League rank |
| Points per game | 2.18 | 1st |
| Projected points total | 100.28 | 1st |
| Goals per game | 2.06 | 1st |
| Projected goals | 94.8 | 1st |
| Goals conceded per game | 20 | 2nd |
| Projected goals conceded | 27.9 | 2nd |
How many points do Leeds need according to Farke?
Farke has been around the block a few times in the Championship,
and he is of the common opinion that accruing two points per game should
be enough for the top two – 46 games bringing 92 points. He spoke after the
Sunderland win saying Leeds need 20 more points to be sure of their position (via the Mirror):
“If we were to stop right now on 72 points, we would perhaps make it into the top six, but it’s not guaranteed. Hopefully we won’t lose all the last 13 games, so I think it’s a major step.
“But we have to definitely reach the play-offs and in order to be there in the top two with automatic promotion, yeah, we need to win 20 more points, and for that, it’s a long road. Each and every game is complicated.”
How many points do Leeds need to confirm promotion?
Provided neither Burnley or Sunderland in third or fourth drop
a single point between now and the end of the season, then they will
end up on a tally that comes close to Reading’s record of 106 points.
However, if we use the points per game tallies of the two sides in the playoffs
that can catch the Whites and Sheffield United, then we get a clearer view of their expected totals.
Using Burnley’s 1.97 points per game, and Sunderland’s 1.88 per game,
Leeds know they need to gain at least 91 points to be likely to finish in the top two,
boasting a far superior goal difference to those behind them.
Burnley face Sheffield Wednesday at home tonight, while Sunderland host Joe Gelhardt’s Hull City.
How many points do Leeds need for the title?
To finish top of the pile, Leeds then need to accrue more points than their closest rivals Sheffield United as well, who were handed a two-point deduction at the start of the season.
Had it not been for that deduction, they’d be level with Leeds on points, having accumulated the same 2.18 per game.
With that, the Blades are projected for 98 points on their current record, but Leeds will be hoping to put a three-point dent in that calculation with Bramall Lane victory on Monday.
Add to that the fact that Burnley and Sheffield United face off at Turf Moor in gameweek 44, so at least one will be dropping points, meaning Leeds will need fewer points to secure promotion and possibly the title, depending on the outcome either way.
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