Is Josh Allen the Undisputed MVP Front-Runner?

Allen’s MVP Chances Soar, Even with Lamar Jackson’s Historic Season

As the NFL season enters its final stretch, discussions about the league’s MVP intensify, often overshadowing team success, pivotal late-season games, and playoff implications.

This year’s MVP race has narrowed to three contenders: Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Allen’s case gained significant traction after Buffalo’s 48-42 victory over the 12-2 Detroit Lions, with his MVP odds climbing to (-900) via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Before that game, Jackson delivered another stellar performance with five touchdowns and no interceptions, marking the second time he’s achieved such a feat this season. Meanwhile, Allen has also been in exceptional form, accumulating over 400 total yards and six touchdowns in a loss to the Rams, followed by another 400+ yard, four-touchdown outing against Detroit.

Allen’s recent dominance has elevated him to the top of the MVP conversation, with some analysts declaring the race over. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky confidently stated this, while former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan argued that anyone not voting for Allen should lose their vote.

Allen’s performance this season has been incredible, especially given Buffalo’s roster turnover. The team’s success undeniably hinges on his heroics. However, it’s striking how little attention the media is giving Jackson’s extraordinary season. Statistically, Jackson outperforms Allen in nearly every category—higher completion rate, more passing yards, rushing yards, touchdowns, and fewer interceptions. He also leads in QBR, PFF grade, and passer rating, ranking fourth all-time in the latter.

The only significant edge Allen holds is in rushing touchdowns (11 to three), though many came on quarterback sneaks. If the stats remain consistent, it would be unprecedented for Jackson not to win the award.

While the Bills have two more wins than the Ravens, that gap isn’t typically enough to outweigh such a clear statistical advantage. If team record were the deciding factor, players like Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff would be leading the race. Neither, however, matches the level of play demonstrated by Jackson or Allen.

The narrative around Allen appears to be driven by recency bias. While Jackson’s MVP campaign gained momentum late last season thanks to highlight-worthy performances against top teams, Allen’s recent surge has come against weaker competition. Buffalo’s recent wins include a decimated 49ers team and a Detroit squad with a subpar defense.

Despite Allen’s remarkable season, Jackson remains ahead statistically. For Allen to convincingly take the award, Buffalo would need to significantly outpace Baltimore in team success, which isn’t currently the case. Additionally, Baltimore dominated Buffalo 35-10 in Week 3, a head-to-head result that would likely hold more weight if the roles were reversed.

Much of this debate reflects voter fatigue. Like in the NBA with players such as Michael Jordan or LeBron James, repeated MVP winners must achieve historic feats to secure the award again. Jackson, already a two-time MVP, is on pace to post prime Aaron Rodgers passing stats while nearing a 1,000-yard rushing season—an unprecedented achievement for a quarterback.

Both Allen and Jackson are delivering extraordinary seasons. While Allen’s performance would have likely secured the award last year, Jackson’s record-breaking numbers make his case stronger. For Jackson to gain momentum, Baltimore would likely need to win out, clinch their division, and maintain his exceptional level of play.

At this stage in his career, Jackson has little to prove during the regular season. While another MVP would be an honor, his focus is likely on postseason success and the challenges that await in January.