NBA projections for 2024-2025: How the Eastern Conference’s bottom half will fare
No team in the Eastern Conference bottoms out like the lottery teams do.
Four East teams finished the previous campaign with at least 57 losses,
and the conference as a whole had seven of the 11 worst records in the league.
Top honors went to the Detroit Pistons for their 28-game losing run,
although Charlotte had the poorest scoring margin in the league; the Hornets,
Washington Wizards, and Pistons together won less games than five NBA clubs.
Thus, yes, it was awful, and I doubt that things will significantly improve in 2024–2025.
Many clubs are motivated to tank for a high lottery pick because of the stacked draft,
which is headlined by Duke forward Cooper Flagg. The Brooklyn Nets and the Chicago Bulls were
among the teams who leaned heavily on such tactic throughout the offseason,
although the latter team did it less blatantly. (Those who appreciate high-art tanking endeavors,
Mark April 11 on your calendars: Washington and Chicago will play in the second-to-last game of the season.
Here’s an interesting side dish: With so many laggards and 10 teams required to
advance to the postseason, it’s possible we’ll see a historically bad record qualify for the Play-In.
Even if not, the potential is definitely there for five 55-loss teams in this conference,
despite the fact that they frequently play one another.
With that said, let’s take a closer look at my bottom seven teams in the East — their projected records,
what they’re doing and where they might be headed. (We’ll discuss the rest of the league later this week.)
Washington Wizards (14-68)
When the results of my first run through of the predictions were displayed, I was quite astounded.
I had assumed that the Wizards would find it difficult to improve significantly on their 15-67
record from the previous season, but doing the arithmetic on my predictions startled me.
This is a poor roster.
The Wizards lost starting point guard Tyrus Jones to free agency and traded Deni Avdjia,
their best player from the previous season, in a reasonable transaction for two firsts and two seconds,
according to my BORD$ model. I believe Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are the team’s greatest players,
and Kuzma is likely to be gone by February. Malcolm Brogdon as well. Corey Kispert as well.
And maybe newly signed free agent Jonas Valančiūnas, too.
At least we know Poole won’t be going anywhere, not with the $96 million he’s owed over the
next three years. (The contract could escalate even higher, but his incentives for reaching the
playoffs or making All-Defense seem safe for the foreseeable future.) Poole will get a chance to
rehab his value by playing on the ball this season, hopefully not to the detriment of the other four
people hoping to touch it.
Obviously, this is all part of a down-to-the-studs rebuild, a welcome shift in mentality after
years of chasing any shiny object that might net the Wizards the eighth seed and an immediate
self-congratulatory parade. However, Washington’s failures to move on from Bradley Beal
until it was too late have resulted in a more painful reset. This year is likely to be the necessary
nadir before Washington can start the long trudge back up the standings.
This year, the Wizards selected three players in the first round, although they are all still in their
teens and not well developed. In all likelihood, they will suffer setbacks as they work things out.
With his quick feet, quick hands, and 7-foot size, center Alex Sarr, the second choice,
is a potential defensive monster. On the offensive end, he has enough agility and
ballhandling on the perimeter to give some hope that a unicorn may be hiding somewhere.
That said, the 2024 version of Sarr is going to be a clear minus on offense, offering little
threat in the post but also not far along enough as a shooter to scare anyone.
The low-key swing skill here is his hands — he struggled to snare contested rebounds and
catch in traffic last year. He may also play extensively power forward next to
Valančiūnas while the Wizards wait for his body to fill out.
The other children combine promise and finger-crossing in a similar way.
Bub Carrington, a late-lottery pick obtained via the trade of Avdija, needs to improve
defensively and physically, but he had a strong summer league and could be this team’s best
option for a sixth man. Kyshawn George, a late first-round pick, is a 3-and-D prospect who
most likely has a lot of Capital City Go-Go ahead of him. Recalling from a year ago,
Bilal Coulibaly occasionally showed signs of promise but still has to improve as a shooter and
decision-maker. With the Avdija move, he will probably have an opportunity to play.
Leave a Reply