DONE DEAL: Manchester City has finally accepted Atletico Madrid’s bid for Julián Álvarez.
DONE DEAL: Manchester City has finally accepted Atletico Madrid’s bid for Julián Álvarez.
The month of June is a time for hope and optimism about what your club can achieve in the transfer market. Oftentimes, that hope is slowly crushed throughout July and August, the avalanche of names linked to your favorite team whittled down to a few potential reinforcements. Maybe they are signings made as a favor to an agent or some other business connection — those deals tend to elicit more eyerolls and groans of disappointment from fans. But maybe these are exciting players who offer genuine inspiration — and fill a need in the squad.
Julián Álvarez fits the latter for Atlético de Madrid. Recent reports, beginning with Marca, have linked Los Colchoneros to the Manchester City star, whose role under Pep Guardiola has sometimes been uncertain across two seasons in the Premier League. It goes without saying (but here I am, saying it anyway) that any deal between Atlético and Man City for Álvarez will be difficult to achieve — the striker’s market value per Transfermarkt is set at €90 million, a fee that Atleti have exceeded only once in club history.
The Álvarez formula — is it viable?
Marca on Tuesday reported that Álvarez is Atlético Madrid’s “great desire” for the summer 2024 transfer window, and that the club has already made “approaches” to gauge the World Cup winner’s interest in swapping Manchester for Madrid — preferring to sign him over Villarreal’s Alexander Sørloth or Girona’s Artem Dovbyk.
Atlético’s Argentine players, including Ángel Correa, Nahuel Molina, Rodrigo de Paul, and head coach Diego Simeone, are expected to convince Álvarez to join LALIGA following two seasons (and two Premier League titles) with Guardiola’s City. According to TyC Sports‘ Guido Bercovich, Simeone and de Paul are the most likely candidates to bring Álvarez to Madrid. De Paul and Atlético’s other World Cup-winning Argentines will reportedly seek to persuade Álvarez during preparations for the forthcoming Copa América, which begins on June 20 in the US.
Marca’s follow-up report on Wednesday revealed that Atlético’s “path” to signing Álvarez would have to be on an initial loan, with Man City’s price tag on the 24-year-old ranging from €80 million to €100 million at this point in the summer. While City are not at all inclined to let Álvarez leave under a loan arrangement, Marca reminded readers that Atleti have pulled off similar “impossible signings” — David Villa, Luis Suárez, and even the return of Antoine Griezmann — over the past decade.
(Not coincidentally, all three players were “discards” from FC Barcelona.)
Fabrizio Romano on Wednesday stated that Atlético are one of several teams to have registered an interest in Álvarez, with sources close to the player indicating he would think about a departure if more playing time followed. Argentina-based reporter Vero Brunati said that Atleti’s present focus is on Dovbyk, whose release clause at Girona is €40 million — a price chief executive and shareholder Miguel Ángel Gil Marín is not willing to pay.
According to Marca, Atlético is willing to pay a significant fee (in the form of an obligation to buy?) to recruit Álvarez. Additionally, the club is willing to sell promising forward Samu Omorodion after rejecting an offer from West Ham United. Guardiola may rely on Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, and Jérémy Doku to provide offensive options if Álvarez leaves.
Alvarez’s fit with Atlético
According to Marca’s first story from Tuesday, Álvarez would fit Simeone’s team “like a glove.” The former River Plate star swiftly adapted to the demands of the Premier League after arriving in 2022, and he is coming off a season in which he scored 19 goals and assisted 13 times in 54 appearances (3,480 minutes) across all competitions.
In the 2023/24 season, Álvarez only appeared as a forward in 38% of his minutes, according per Atlético Stats. Guardiola deployed Álvarez as an offensive midfielder in the absence of Kevin De Bruyne, often serving as the “hook” between City’s midfield and Haaland up top. Álvarez’s creative output increased from zero assists in 31 games in 2022/23 to eight assists in the Premier League this season after changing roles.
It is likely that Atlético have identified Julián Álvarez as the eventual ideal replacement for Antoine Griezmann — but the club faces a challenge in convincing “the spider” to swap Manchester for Madrid, as well as negotiating with Man City.
Rather than signing Álvarez to replace Memphis Depay or Álvaro Morata (should he depart), it is much more likely that Atlético have identified “La Araña” as its eventual replacement for Griezmann, who scored a team-high 24 goals in all competitions this season but turned 33 years old in March. Álvarez is not a “born goalscorer” — he scored 11 goals from roughly 14 expected this season, and he scored 54 goals in 122 appearances at River Plate. But he is a born goalscorer’s best friend, and pairing him long-term with Samu would be very exciting for Atlético’s future.
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