Points loss or £89.7m Punishment: Leicester city, Ipswich town and Leeds united to face sanctions for breaching Premier League and Football League Rules.

Points loss or £89.7m Punishment: Leicester city, Ipswich town and Leeds united to face sanctions for breaching Premier League and Football League Rules.

As we approach the last games, Leicester, Ipswich, and Leeds are separated by two points, while Southampton is four points outside of the automatic promotion spot.

The competitive competition for the Premier League title this season has received a lot of attention, but the fight for the Championship’s automatic promotion berths is expected to be just as intense.

With just three games left, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, Leeds United, and Southampton are all battling for the top two spots, making this the most exciting conclusion England’s second tier has ever seen.

Fourth position Just two weeks ago, Southampton appeared to be well out of the race, eight points behind the three leaders.

Nevertheless, none of the top three clubs appear to be able to pull away, as they all frequently lose points when it counts most, giving Southampton an improbable window of chance to squeak back into the race.

Here, Telegraph Sport assesses every club prior to their season’s last games.

Ipswich Town

Ipswich, a recently promoted team with a cheap salary cap, has emerged as the unexpected winner in this season’s promotion battle. For the first time since 2002, the team led by former Manchester United assistant manager Kieran McKenna is aiming to make it into the Premier League.

Ipswich had won nine out of ten games, and going into the final stretch, they were playing at a high level. However, despite only giving up two goals in their last three games, they have fallen apart at the worst time, managing to only grab two points.

Throughout the season, the team’s strengths of creating opportunities and being effective in front of goal have evolved into disadvantages.

They were playing four games in April, averaging 4.7 anticipated goals (xG), which was their second-lowest total for the month this year. Only April has seen McKenna’s team underperform their xG; for the whole campaign, they have scored 15 goals more than anticipated.

Ipswich still has two away games left against clubs that could make the playoffs. A home match against Huddersfield, who are in 22nd place, appears favorable for them on the last day, but they are only one point short of safety right now and will not go down easily.

Upcoming fixtures

Hull (a) – April 27
Coventry (h) – April 30
Huddersfield (h) – May 4

Leicester City

Leicester City’s campaign has been peculiar thus far. Enzo Maresca’s team was headed for a Championship record point total after 23 games. They have lost six of their last ten games, putting them in relegation position. Not so long ago, automatic promotion appeared inevitable; nevertheless, that certainty is no longer guaranteed.

A closer examination of the data reveals that Leicester’s incredible first-half pace was unsustainable. By Christmas, they had accrued 58 points from 23 games, which was 12.1 points above their total expected points (xP). Since then, they have only accrued 30 points in 19 games, which is seven fewer than their xP. They are, to put it simply, regressing to their actual level.

Still, Leicester’s decline from grace has been noteworthy. They had a 12-point lead at the top of the standings just two months ago. They now sit in second place, one game ahead of them, with two other clubs not far behind.

With their financial difficulties, Leicester needs to get promoted especially badly. They lost £89.7 million in the 2022–2023 season and might be penalized for allegedly breaking Football League and Premier League regulations.

Leicester has three home games remaining and an excellent chance of finishing strong because neither Preston nor Blackburn will have much to play for. As he has done so frequently, they will be hoping that Jamie Vardy, who has eight in his previous 13 outings, can provide the goods for them.

Upcoming fixtures

West Brom (h) – April 20
Southampton (h) – April 23
Preston (a) – April 29
Blackburn (h) – May 4

Leeds United

At the halfway point of the 2024 season, Leeds trailed Leicester and Ipswich by 13 and 7 points, respectively. However, a 15-game league winning streak to begin 2024 has vaulted Leeds back into automatic promotion contention.

But just as their opponents made a mistake that allowed Daniel Farke’s team to take the lead, Leeds collapsed as well, managing just one point out of the final nine available.

The main problem has been a failing attack: Leeds underperformed their xG by three goals in April (four goals from 7.0 xG), which is the most underperformance of the campaign.

Star player Crysencio Summerville (17G, 8A), who was named the best player of the season in the division just now, has not spoken anything. Patrick Bamford, who scored 17 Premier League goals in 2020–21, has also squandered a number of excellent opportunities.

Leeds still have games remaining against relegation-threatened QPR and mid-table Middlesbrough before a potentially crucial home match against Southampton on the final day.

They want to avoid a repetition of the 2018–19 campaign, in which the club led by Marcelo Bielsa at the time dropped to third place after taking just one point from the final three games and lost to Derby County in the play-offs.

Upcoming fixtures

Middlesbrough (a) – April 22
QPR (a) – April 26
Southampton (h) – May 4

Conclusion

There has never been a Championship squad with 90 points and no promotion. The fact that there might be two this season demonstrates how unique and close the margins are this campaign.

Although Leeds and even Southampton should not be written off in the battle for automatic promotion, Opta’s model gives Leicester and Ipswich the advantage.

Russell Martin’s side has scored nine points more than the aggregate total of the three leaders in the last three games. The table leaders must demonstrate that their recent poor performance is an isolated incident; else, Southampton will and can take advantage.

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