Celtic, Rangers and Scottish football served coefficient wake-up call as Champions League spot evaporates

Celtic, Rangers and Scottish football served coefficient wake-up call as Champions League spot evaporates

The announcement that the Scottish Premiership champions would no longer be guaranteed automatic participation into

the Champions League group stages from next season will come as a severe blow to Celtic and Rangers.

However, it should serve as a wake-up call for everyone of Scottish football about

the importance of improving performances and outcomes in Europe if the country is to avoid falling lower down the coefficient rankings.

Scotland has enjoyed a place at the top table of UEFA competition for the previous two seasons,

secure in the knowledge that the league winners will qualify directly for the Champions League group stages and the £20 million bonus that comes with it.

Celtic benefited from back-to-back titles won by Ange Postecoglou in 2021-22 and 2022-23,

although they finished last in their Champions League group phase both seasons,

with only one victory in 12 matches. Rangers also competed last season after advancing through the qualifying rounds,

however they finished with zero points and the lowest record of any Champions League team in group stage history.

The guarantee of a Champions League spot for Scottish league winners remains in place this season,

so either Celtic or Rangers will compete in the newly revamped competition next season,

which will replace group stages with a single league table of 36 teams and a potential £50 million prize fund.

This also benefits other Scottish Premiership clubs,

as they receive larger solidarity payments from UEFA based on the number of teams competing in the Champions League.

However, that guarantee will no longer be in place for the following season after the Czech Republic surpassed Scotland to 10th place in

the UEFA coefficient rankings thanks to Viktoria Plzen’s goalless draw away to

Fiorentina in their Europa Conference League quarterfinal first leg on Thursday.

Dropping to 11th place means that, for the first time in three years,

Scotland may not have representation in Europe’s elite event in 2025-26.

If Celtic win the league next season, they will have to qualify through a play-off against the champion of a league outside the top ten,

such as Switzerland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, or Ukraine.

Rangers, if they win the league next season, could still gain direct entry to the Champions League via the back door due to their high individual club coefficient,

assuming they are the top-ranked team in the qualifiers and the Champions League winner qualifies automatically through their domestic league.

That would lessen the impact for the Ibrox side, but concerns persist about Scotland’s coefficient trend,

with forecasts that the country could fall much farther down the rankings by the time the 2026-27 qualification parameters are established.

UEFA coefficients are computed over a five-year period, and the 2019-20 season,

which saw Celtic and Rangers reach the Europa League knockout stage, will be dropped the following season.

This means Scotland will need  a strong performance in Europe next season just to maintain, let alone improve, on their position.

That puts a special burden on Celtic and Rangers, Scotland’s two best-resourced clubs by a long by, to punch their weight,

if not more, next season. That would require both clubs to stay in Europe after Christmas.

Few would argue that Rangers, with the exception of the Champions League disaster last season,

have not contributed significantly to Scotland’s coefficient ranking, with their run to the Europa League final in 2021-22 and

three other trips to the last 16 of the same competition in the previous five years accounting for a sizable portion of the coefficient tally.

Celtic need to do more, having experienced a terrible Champions League record and failing to win a knockout tie in Europe in 20 years.

However, the three other SPFL representatives in Europe next season, who will almost definitely be Hearts and two each from Kilmarnock,

St Mirren, Dundee, Hibs, Motherwell, and Aberdeen, must also step up and contribute.

Easier said than done, given that the clubs they will face on the continent are frequently financially stronger, especially in the latter qualifying rounds.

Aberdeen were Scotland’s greatest non-Old Firm contributors to the coefficient this season,

finishing with one win and three draws in the Europe Conference League group stages after losing in the Europa League play-off to BK Hacken.

Hearts and Hibs both failed to advance to the group stages,

losing to PAOK and Aston Villa respectively after two challenging draws in the Europa Conference League play-offs.

Few would blame the two Edinburgh clubs for losing to those two clubs, but Hibs also lost their first leg away to Andorran minnows Inter d’Escaldes,

and Motherwell were eliminated by Irish club Sligo Rovers last season.

These types of results must be eliminated if Scotland is to regain their coefficient.

The guarantee of a Europa Conference League group stage in 2025-26 will stay in place for the winners of next season’s Scottish Cup,

as Scotland remains placed among the top 12 leagues. The following season, however, is looking more ominous,

as Scotland will begin the rankings in 16th place, giving the five Scottish clubs in Europe a clear mandate to catapult the nation back into at least 12th place.

If that does not happen, the Scottish Cup winners would lose their assurance of European group-stage football for the 2026-27 season,

which will require two qualifying rounds to get there. Next season seems to be make-or-break for Scotland on the European scene.

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