NFL free agency predictions 2024: Projected landing spots for top players, including Chris Jones and Kirk Cousins

NFL free agency predictions 2024: Projected landing spots for top players, including Chris Jones and Kirk Cousins

While the 2023 National Football League season is finished, the 2024 NFL offseason calendar has begun, and fans are looking forward to the 2024 NFL Draft as well as seeing where prominent free agents land. It’s time for our NFL free agency predictions for the 2024 offseason.

Obviously, these are merely wild predictions for 2024 NFL free agency, and many unexpected events will occur. As part of our analysis, we examine teams’ needs, cap space, and the cost of acquiring exceptional talent.

Let’s look at our NFL free agent predictions for the 2024 season.

2024 NFL free agency projections: Potential landing destinations

As part of this exercise, we’ll begin with individual estimated landing destinations for the top 25 NFL free agents in 2024, along with breakdowns of the reasoning and contract projections. Following that, we’ll provide position-specific NFL free agency predictions.

Projections for the top 20 NFL free agents’ landing spots

1. Chris Jones, defensive tackle – Houston Texans, four years, $122 million.

The Kansas City Chiefs will do everything they can to keep Chris Jones, and their chances of succeeding are better than imagined. However, money is more important than everything else. DeMeco Ryan’s defense would tremendously benefit from having a game-changing player who can generate interior pressure and then kick outside on third downs to bulldoze the tackle and get to quarterback. With Will Anderson Jr. and C.J. Stroud both entering the second year of their rookie contracts, this is an excellent moment for Houston to add one of the greatest players in the NFL to their defense.

2. Josh Allen, edge rusher, Jacksonville Jaguars, franchise-tagged ($22.8 million).

Josh Allen would undoubtedly cash handsomely if he were allowed to enter NFL free agency in 2024. Given that he was practically a one-man pass rush for the Jackson

3. Justin Madubuike, defensive tackle – Indianapolis Colts – four years and $89 million

Under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, the Indianapolis Colts rarely blitz. They had the NFL’s lowest blitz rate last season (15.7 percent), as Bradley relied on DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Kwity Paye, and Samson Ebukam to generate pressure. It wasn’t enough, as indicated by the defense’s pressure rate ranking in the bottom ten (19.6 percent). With Stewart becoming a free agency and not much money put in edge rushers, Madubuike may line up beside Buckner to provide Indianapolis with an elite defensive line.

ville Jaguars last season, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to test the market. Jacksonville could tag him to prevent it from happening, and then sign him to a long-term contract this summer.

4. Brian Burns, edge rusher, Carolina Panthers, franchise-tagged ($22.8 million).

If the Carolina Panthers declined to accept trade offers for Brian Burns at the 2023 deadline, they will not let him leave the building. Given how poorly contract negotiations between the two parties have gone, an extension appears unlikely. So the Panthers will place the franchise tag on Burns to keep him from becoming one of the top NFL free agents in 2024.

5. Tee Higgins, wide receiver – Carolina Panthers – four years and $90 million

The Carolina Panthers are desperate for a No. 1 wide receiver, and Dave Canales will make it his top priority. While a reunion between Canales and Mike Evans makes sense on paper, the Panthers would be better suited signing a wide receiver who fits into their schedule. Tee Higgins, 25, might be Bryce Young’s go-to option next season, and in Canales’ approach, that could result in outstanding production for both Carolina’s young quarterback and wideout.

6. Kirk Cousins, quarterback – Atlanta Falcons – 2 years and $84 million

Kirk Cousins’ NFL free agency options appear to be limited to the Atlanta Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings. Unsurprisingly, both teams are being discussed for potential trades to No. 3 overall. Finally, Falcons owner Arthur Blank’s desperation could position the team to win a bidding war with Minnesota. Furthermore, Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will be aware that Cousins has experience running the style of offense he prefers and that Atlanta can win with him.

7. Jaylon Johnson, cornerback, Chicago Bears, franchise-tagged ($18.8 million).

Jaylon Johnson wants to be one of the NFL’s highest-paid defensive backs, and he has a solid argument for it. Last season, the 24-year-old cornerback developed as one of the greatest cover corners in the NFL, competing in man coverage with some of the league’s best pass catchers. However, injuries are a part of his history. Between his contract demands and the risks of a long-term agreement, Chicago will simply tag him.

8. Antoine Winfield Jr., safety – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Franchise-tagged ($16.3 million).

While the franchise tag can be discouraging for NFL free agent predictions, it is a reality for elite talent. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers understand that Antoine Winfield Jr. will have a far greater market than Baker Mayfield this offseason. So, Tampa Bay lets Mayfield test the waters of NFL free agency while signing the All-Pro safety to a fully guaranteed one-year contract.

9. Christian Wilkins, defensive tackle – Miami Dolphins – franchise-tagged ($21 million).

Despite severe salary-cap difficulties that have the organization more than $40 million above the 2024 NFL payroll, Miami cannot afford to lose Christian Wilkins. Over the past three seasons, the 28-year-old has been one of football’s top defensive tackles. He’s also one of the greatest three-down defensive lineman in the NFL right now, and given the other potential changes that could affect this defense, Miami can’t afford to lose him.

10. L’Jarius Sneed, cornerback – Kansas City Chiefs – 3 years and $55.5 million

While Chris Jones is departing the repeat Super Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs’ situation isn’t all negative. L’Jarius Sneed is critical to the success of this secondary, and Steve Spagnuolo will insist on keeping one of the top cornerback combinations in the NFL. Even if Jones leaves, having Sneed and Trent McDuffie in coverage means that the Chiefs will have a strong defense in 2024.

11. Mike Evans, wide receiver – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – three years and $66 million

It will be difficult to retain Winfield Jr., Mike Evans, and Baker Mayfield, but the Buccaneers appear to be in a position to do so. Winfield Jr.’s franchise tag is affordable, and Mayfield is prepared to take a little discount, clearing the way for Mike Evans to return. Keeping the trio will cost others, but it is worth it for Tampa Bay to retain its most vital starters.

12. Tyron Smith, offensive tackle – Kansas City Chiefs – one year, $10.5 million.

The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl despite having one of the AFC’s worst left tackles. Unique conditions in NFL free agency may change that in 2024. Tyron Smith has earned more than $120 million in his NFL career, so top cash is unlikely to be a concern. Instead, the 33-year-old left tackle may sign a one-year contract to compete for a Super Bowl with the Chiefs.

13. Michael Pittman Jr., wide receiver – Indianapolis Colts, franchise-tagged ($20.7 million)

The Indianapolis Colts just cannot afford to lose a significant offensive weapon for Anthony Richardson. Receiver is already a major need for this offense, even with Pittman Jr. on the roster. Indianapolis can locate a playmaker in the 2024 NFL Draft, while Pittman Jr. returns as a chain mover who assists Richardson in tight situations. A contract extension may be discussed later in the offseason.

14. Danielle Hunter, edge rusher, Chicago Bears – four years, $80 million.

It’s no secret that the Chicago Bears are interested in Danielle Hunter and are seeking for a pass rusher to pair with Montez Sweat. Durability concerns may make some clubs wary of adding a fourth year to Hunter’s contract, but Chicago may be ready to take that chance if it wins a bidding battle. Add Hunter to the Bears’ defense, and they may be a top-10 unit by 2024.

15. Leonard Williams, defensive tackle – Seattle Seahawks – 3 years and $58 million

The Seattle Seahawks are essentially unable to franchise tag Leonard Williams due to the high cost, which wastes financial space. However, if he does not resign, the draft money they used to acquire him will be wasted. Given the importance of interior defensive lineman in Mike Macdonald’s scheme, Seattle will reach an agreement with Williams on a new contract.

16. Marquise Brown, wide receiver, Denver Broncos – two years, $25 million.

If the Denver Broncos are going to start one of the worst quarterbacks in 2024, Sean Payton will need playmakers. Courtland Sutton appeared better in 2023, but Jerry Jeudy has been a huge failure as a former first-round choice. Brown can be a big-play danger in Denver, and a two-year contract allows the Broncos to avoid making long-term commitments to an erratic player.

17. Bryce Huff, edge rusher, Detroit Lions – two years, $35 million.

Aidan Hutchinson carried the Detroit Lions’ pass rush late in the 2023 season, and when he didn’t return, no one else did. Aaron Glenn already has men who can defend the run; this unit proven that last year. So, Detroit can afford to take a chance on a pass-rushing specialist like Bryce Huff. Put him opposite Hutchinson, and the pass defense will improve dramatically. Furthermore, it permits the Lions to spend their first-round pick on a cornerback rather than an edge rusher.

18. Kendall Fuller, cornerback, Washington Commanders, 3 years, $42 million.

Outside of Kendall Fuller, the Washington Commanders have the poorest secondary in the NFL. Dan Quinn might improve things, but with so few high-end cornerbacks available in NFL free agency, re-signing Fuller is a top priority. The 29-year-old can take advantage of Washington’s desperation and copious cap space to secure a lucrative multi-year contract.

19. Baker Mayfield, quarterback – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 3 years and $96 million

Geno Smith signed a three-year, $105 million contract extension with the Seattle Seahawks last year in identical circumstances. While Baker Mayfield’s rebound year may not have been as impressive, he more than showed his worth as a starting quarterback capable of performing at a high level. Tampa Bay needs to keep him, and in a league where Daniel Jones earns $40 million, Mayfield won’t make less than $30 million.

20. Calvin Ridley, wide receiver – Jacksonville Jaguars – 2 years and $30 million

Calvin Ridley has demonstrated that he is not the same athlete that dominated the Atlanta Falcons offense. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars are committed in him, and Trevor Lawrence requires as much support as possible. Signing him for two years rather than three reduces some of the risk, while also giving Ridley the option to cash in later if he improves over the following two seasons.

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